Ranking #1 on Google Overrated (Ahrefs study of 100k keywords)

Everyone wants to get the number one spot, but is it really the right goal to pursue? Our study of 100k keywords says not always.

I haven't done any client SEO work in years, but I'm pretty sure the gist is what it was 5-10 years ago:

Can you rank my website #1 on Google for these keywords? How long will it take? How much will it cost?

None of these questions are wrong, but they demonstrate a fundamental misunderstanding of how SEO works in 2019. Why? Because ranking #1 doesn't always equate to SEO success.

Traffic volume (which drives sales and conversions) is what really matters.

If you're tired of explaining this to clients, you'll love the results of this study.

Epiphany: The top page doesn't always get the most search traffic

I use Ahrefs Keywords Explorer—our keyword research tool—almost daily.

Most of the time, we check the search popularity of the topics we are thinking of blogging about. Sometimes though, it's just for fun.

In fact, last week I found myself thinking about the most popular searches starting with "how to learn".

Too curious? Here you go:

Still, these days, I rarely pay much attention to the search volume of individual keywords (I've explained why here and here). Rather, I look at the amount of search traffic on the top pages.

To explain why, see the question “Submit Website to Search Engines” in Ahrefs' Keywords Explorer. It receives 1,400 searches per month in the US

If we assume a click-through rate of ~30%, the search traffic potential for this keyword in the US is ~400 per month (1,400 * 0.3).

Now see how much US search traffic the top-ranking pages get:

Some of these numbers are close to 20x our above estimate!

Why does this happen? Because those pages get traffic for—and from—hundreds of long-tail keywords.

Now take another look at the above screenshot.

Do you notice anything? I do:

The top page is not the one that gets the most search traffic!

This is something I notice all the time. The top page often gets less search traffic than other pages in the SERP.

Here's another interesting observation:

The traffic numbers for the top pages rarely show the trends you might expect. They don't always go in descending order.

Same goes for the screenshot above. Pages ranking in position #1 get less traffic than pages ranking #2 and even #10!

So, the question is: How often does this actually happen, and what impact (if any) does it have on your SEO approach?

To answer this question, I got our data science team to study it at scale.

Study: How often does the top-ranking page get the most search traffic?

Here's what we did:

Captured 100,000 (non-branded) search queries with at least 1,000 searches per month in the US;

Pulled the top 10 ranking pages for each of them;

Total US search traffic pulled for each page;

Calculated how often the top-ranking page received the most search traffic.

Side note. *The keywords we analyzed had either 1k-2k, 5k-6k, or 10k-11k monthly searches.

And here's what we got:

This pie-chart clearly shows that ranking #1 is overrated.

The top page gets the most total search traffic only 49% of the time!

Side note. We actually studied ~100k keywords in three groups by search volume (1k-2k, 5k-6k, 10k-11k). Our thinking is that the results may vary based on the search popularity of the keyword. But the number of results was so close that we decided not to split all three tests and instead take the average.

Lesson: It's time to stop agonizing over ranking #1 and start focusing on relevant search traffic.

Please don't get me wrong here.

I'm not trying to convince you that ranking #1 for your "main keywords" is a stupid goal. It's not, so there's no need to stop sending your clients beautiful reports detailing the ranking progress for their desired keywords.

A page position on Google for your main term is still a good indicator of SEO success.

In fact, it has the highest correlation with a page's search traffic of all the variables we studied:

This pie-chart shows that ranking #1 is overrated.

The top page structure gets total search traffic only 49% of the time!

Side note. We thought ~100k on the network by true search volume (1k-2k, 5k-6k, 10k-11k) results might vary based on what wads search decisions. But the number of results was so divided that we decided not to test and make a change.

Text: Time to stop agonizing over ranking #1 and start focusing on relevant search tracks

Please don't get me wrong here.

I'm not trying to tell you that ranking #1 for "major keywords" is a stupid goal. It's not, so your clients don't need to turn off beautiful reports with progress statements for their desired keywords.

A page position on Google for your niche is still a good sign of SEO results.

Mind you, among all the variables we've studied that relate to a page's search traffic:

Our post is only at position #6, yet the article from Backlinko gets almost 3x more traffic than the #1 rank.

One reason for this is that we went after two very close topics with a single article:

"Keyword Research Tools"

"Free Keyword Research Tools"

So not only do we rank in the top 5 for keyword research tools queries…

… but also free keyword research tools.

In fact, our article ranks in the top 5 for 191 search queries (in the US) with the word “free” in them.